The situation in the blockchain industry has stabilized, digital money no longer grows in value, but neither does it fall. We tell what to expect from Bitcoin and ko in the coming months, and how things can change at any time
In 2018, Bitcoin price fluctuations fell by 98%, and over the past month and a half, the cost of cryptocurrency has not changed. In early January, the coin was trading at $ 3,746, now the price is slightly lower – $ 3,637. Most of the serious events that may somehow affect the situation in the industry, such as the launch of the Bakkt platform, Bitcoin-ETF, the launch of the platform from Fidelity Investment and others, have been postponed, all of them should occur during the current year, but at the moment the market has turned in the “safe haven”.
Altcoins, of course, remain in the industry, the cost of which changes dramatically in a short period of time, but the overall situation has stabilized. At the beginning of the year, the capitalization of all digital money was at around $ 125 billion, now it is $ 122 billion.
2019 could be a restart period for the field of cryptocurrencies, I am sure Valery Petrov, vice president of the RKIB for market development and regulation, is convinced. According to him, Bitcoin “groped” at the equilibrium point of $ 3,500, it suits investors and miners.
“For the further development of the market, the launch of more liquid instruments on Bitcoin will be crucial. First of all, we are talking about the SEC negotiating the possibility of launching cryptocurrency ETFs. At the moment, the department is considering an application from VanEck and SolidX, it has a real chance of approval, in contrast to the proposal of Gemini. If approval is obtained, the liquidity of the market will increase, and we will see an increase in turnover in the market, and, possibly, a rise in the Bitcoin exchange rate, ”said Petrov.
He argues that the introduction of real-life legislation adopted in 2018 will be an important condition for the renovation of the cryptocurrency market. The trend towards self-regulation is particularly prominent, followed by the most advanced jurisdictions, such as Japan. Now the governments of various countries are taking a number of steps to protect investors and increase the attractiveness of the market.
The vice-president of the Russian Academy of Antiquarian Settlement Research believes that Russia is lagging behind this process, a slowdown may lead to the loss of potential investors and the migration of projects to more loyal jurisdictions. The overall trend will move towards tightening regulation and reducing risk for investors. The consequence of this movement should be an increase in the growth of professional investors and investment funds that can invest in real projects of the platform type, Petrov added.
“As part of this trend, we will see an increase in the popularity of STO mechanisms and an increase in the number of steklobcoins. Market prospects will also be determined by the success of major projects, such as TON, as well as the growing attention to blockchain technology from global players – IBM, Facebook and others, ”the expert concluded.
The technical analysis expert and lead trader of United Traders Alexey Markov agreed with him. He is confident that the market will become much more regulated, but at the moment it cannot be assessed whether it will be beneficial or detrimental.
“Yes, adoption will grow, but many of the strengths of Bitcoin will then be in jeopardy. ETF will be, and not one, plus options, deliverable and non-deliverable futures on a large number of sites will be added. By the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin will rise, ”suggested Markov.
The immaturity of the industry and excessive emotional attachment to the investment object demonstrate what is happening in the market, explained Mikhail Mashchenko, an analyst of the social network for eToro investors in Russia and the CIS. He does not believe that the SEC will soon approve the application to launch Bitcoin-ETF.
“Due to the reduction of complexity and the disconnection of many competitors from the network, miners currently have the ability to quite easily extract and accumulate cryptocurrency, with the expectation of future growth. But will it happen? In fact, the main drivers of growth in quotations can be bitching of the bitcoin and large-scale implementation of the Lightning Network, which, of course, will not happen soon, but the extremely low probability of other serious causes for the rally forces patience, ”Mashchenko said.
Advisor to the Chairman of the Board of the Financial Innovations Association Murad Salikhov is more negative in relation to cryptocurrency. He called Bitcoin useless, since all the necessary financial transactions can be made using traditional money.
The situation on the cryptocurrency market, at the moment, does not create prerequisites for a sharp surge in prices, says a leading analyst at Expert Plus LLC Maria Salnikova. She advised to maintain a moderate attitude for 2019 and not to trade in digital money without relevant work experience.